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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 24th, 2014–Jan 25th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Purcells.

As danger approaches low across the board, it's a good time to remind ourselves that low danger doesn't mean no danger. Food for thought on this blog post.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

A high pressure ridge will continue to bring dry, warm conditions.Saturday: An inversion will generate an above freezing layer from around 1800 to 3200m. Expect cloud to around 1800 m as well as some strong alpine sunshine. Alpine temperatures will reach around +3C and will feel higher still in the sunshine. Ridgetop winds 20-30 km/h from the NW.Sunday and Monday: Dry, with a mix of sun and cloud, becoming clear by Monday afternoon. Air temperature cooling significantly (expected max of -2C on Sunday and -6C on Monday). Winds light northerly.

Avalanche Summary

Minor sluffing and ski cutting up to size 1 was observed in the new snow on Thursday.

Snowpack Summary

The recent dry, warm weather has generally consolidated the upper snowpack. Old, stubborn hard wind slabs may exist under a skiff of new snow. Steep, sun exposed features are most likely seeing a daily melt-freeze cycle.The biggest concern throughout the region is a layer of weak sugary depth hoar at the base of the snowpack which may coexist with a crust which formed in October. I would continue to be suspicious of any large or unsupported upper elevation slopes, especially if they haven't already avalanched. Possible triggers include a heavy load over a thin spot, a cornice fall or rapid temperature change. Any avalanche failing at this interface would be highly destructive.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.