Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Looking for the perfect stocking stuffers for yourself or a loved one?  It's a $10 inclinometer, with a danger sign drawn on anything steeper than 35 degrees and a $20 compass with warning labels drawn on west, north, and east aspects.   Our snowpack's losing streak simply won't end! Daily occurrences of remotely triggered slides and natural avalanches are becoming the norm.  The safest way to handle our dangerous snowpack is conservative terrain selection, which starts with careful slope angle and aspect awareness.  Read on to learn more.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Strong northwest winds overnight continued to transport snow into dense drifts on leeward and crossloaded terrain features.  Compared to yesterday, I expect wind slabs will be thicker, harder, and more stubborn to triggers now, the kind that might break above you once you cross to a thinner part of the slab.  Look, listen, and feel for the problem.  Wind slabs will look smooth and pillowy below ridgelines, below convexities, and in gullies.    They will sound hollow and drum-like, and they will feel denser and stiffer than surrounding powder snow.  Seek out wind-sheltered terrain and steer around obvious drifts to avoid the problem.  

    Example of a small wind slab on Mt. Emmons.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    To avoid getting caught in a large and dangerous persistent slab avalanche today, choose low slope angles or seek out sunnier aspects.    Since last weekend, there has been a constant stream natural and human-triggered slab avalanches breaking on faceted weak layers near the ground.  The problem is serious: recent incidents include a helicopter evacuation and a fatality.   Be wary of traveling below steep, connected slopes because many of these avalanches have been triggered remotely from adjacent low angle terrain.  Persistent slabs have been most active on slopes steeper than 35 degrees that face west through north through east at all elevations, and in a few cases, high southeast aspects.  If you are traveling on a slope that fits that description, expect to trigger it easily if it hasn't already avalanched earlier this week.  Slabs are generally 1 foot thick below treeline and will be denser and thicker as you gain elevation towards wind loaded terrain features.  

    12/19: Persistent slab avalanches can be remotely triggered, meaning you don't need to be on the steep portion of the slope to trigger them. Here's an example from Coneys.

Avalanche Discussion

Our observations page and media gallery speak for themselves right now.  We received more reported slides following the same character of avalanches we have seen all week.  Remotely and unintentional skier triggered slides on Coney's and Snodgrass ranging from small to large ( D1 to D2) in size.  Recent naturals along Gibson Ridge, Peanut Lake Road, Schuylkill Ridge, and Yule Pass, which get larger and thicker as you go further northwest up the Slate, up to D2.5.   More remotely triggered slides at Irwin breaking thicker than 2 feet.  All of this on the heels of a fatality on Friday and a serious injury on Tuesday.  95% of these avalanches have been on west through north through east facing terrain: that's the terrain that held widespread, fragile faceted layers after our prolonged dry spell.  The other few avalanches have been on high southwest or southeast aspects, where thick crusts transition towards thinner, faceted crusts in some terrain features. Northwest winds doubled overnight, exacerbating the problem in leeward or crossloaded terrain.  Cinnamon reporting steady 40 mph winds gusting beyond 60 mph. Winds are just dying down again this morning.   In windloaded features, persistent slabs have grown growing larger and fresh wind slabs are also a concern.  

The most dangerous avalanche conditions continue to be at higher elevations and in the Northwest Mountains (and bordering terrain) which received the most snow in the past week.  In those areas, the slabs are largest.  

Regions covered