Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Highlights

Heavy snow, wind, and rain will rapidly load the snowpack and produce widespread natural avalanches. Conditions will continue to worsen overnight Sunday. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended. 

Avalanche problems

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    Although unlikely, avalanches on the mid-January persistent weak layer, now buried 5-7ft+ are still on our radar, especially during a heavy loading event like this. 10-17 days have passed since the last known avalanche ran on this layer in neighboring zones. With the recent new load and a lack of observations, continue being cautious while so much uncertainty is present. Stay well away from big, steep, open slopes.

    (2/11/2021) Natural avalanches which probably occurred early February on the east side of 3 Fingers. Start zones are at approx 6200ft.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2

    Expect heavy snowfall over the next 48hrs with very dangerous avalanche conditions at all elevations. Warming temperatures and strong southwest winds will accompany the storm. Avalanche hazard will likely peak Sunday night. Uncertainty exists in regard to precipitation amounts during the day Sunday, and more snow could arrive earlier than expected. At least another 1-2ft of wet heavy snow will fall on a dry layered snowpack by the end of the weekend. Large natural avalanches within new snow are likely, especially in wind-loaded areas at upper elevations. Avalanches could run far distances and even break on deeper storm layers from earlier in the week. If you venture out during the storm, be certain of your ability to identify and avoid avalanche terrain and minimize exposure to any overhead hazard.

    (2/14/2021) An example of a recent large natural avalanche (D2) in motion on Mt. Herman (N, 5000ft). Similar avalanches are likely Sunday. Photo: Pete Durr

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Snow levels look to rise to 4000ft+ by Sunday afternoon. If a significant warm-up doesn't occur by Sunday, it will by Monday. This warm and wet event will follow a prolonged period of relatively cold temperatures and low elevation snow. This rapid change will cause the snowpack to quickly lose strength. Wet avalanches are likely anywhere you encounter wet heavy surface snow, rollerballs, pinwheels, or snow dripping from trees. Loose wet avalanches could build significant mass as they run downslope and create nasty debris piles. Avoid avalanche terrain if you encounter heavy rain on snow.

    (1/14/2021) Example photo of a wet snow avalanche in the West Central zone from a similar weather event earlier this season.

Avalanche Discussion

A snowboarder triggered and was caught, carried, and partially buried in an avalanche Saturday near Huntoon Point in the Mt. Baker Backcountry. They sustained non-critical injuries and were able to self-rescue with their partners. The avalanche was estimated to be 60ft wide and 18in deep breaking within the recent storm snow.

The adjacent Stevens Pass and West North Zones received 3-6ft of new snow in the past week with incremental loads of cold, low-density snow almost every day. Rounds of warmer and heavier precipitation will begin Saturday night and look to continue through Tuesday as an atmospheric river takes aim at the region. This will be a significant loading event, and a widespread natural avalanche cycle is expected. Incoming storm snow will form thick and reactive slabs atop lighter snow from the past week. Natural avalanches are likely even below treeline, especially with rising snow levels and the potential for heavy rain. The most dangerous conditions will exist in wind-loaded alpine terrain where large natural avalanches could run far distances. Tree well and deep snow immersion hazards are a serious problem with all the recent snow. Find out more information about deep snow safety HERE.

During the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, continue to follow the latest guidance from local, state, and federal health officials. Avoid unnecessary risks that could impact first responders and stress medical resources.  Wear a mask when appropriate, practice social distancing, and consider recreating closer to home.

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