Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche danger remains elevated with the potential to trigger very wide, surprising persistent slab avalanches, especially in areas near the cascade crest such as the Salmon la Sac and Teanaway. Expect active, shallow windslabs to form with increasing easterly winds in these same places. Stay off of, and out from underneath steep open slopes near and above treeline; it is the only way to be sure to not trigger deep avalanches with dire consequences. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    About 3ft of recent storm snow rests over facets and a crust from mid-January. The resulting avalanches have already caused a number of burials and one fatality. They can propagate widely across terrain features and can result in surprising and deadly avalanches. Stay well out from under any large open slopes steeper than 30 degrees, as they can be triggered from a long distance away or from below. Most likely, you won't get a warning sign of whumphing collapses, or if you do, it is likely to turn into an avalanche. You can check for this weak structure with a pole handle or probe for weak snow above a crust as you travel. Snow pit tests can confirm this instability, but one pit is not enough to be sure of it's absence. Use recent avalanche information to identify terrain to avoid.

    Recent activity has been focused near the crest of the East Central Zone, where more recent snow has piled up. The Salmon la Sac, Teanaway, Icicle, and other areas on the south and western edge of the zone have been favored for snowfall and now hold dangerous conditions. Northwest to Southeast aspects in terrain near or above treeline has been the most likely places to find these. The Wenatchee Mountains east of highway 97 hold less recent snow, so expect danger to be a notch lower there. 

    (2/9/2021) Persistent slab avalanches that may have run naturally on an east aspect at around 4900ft in the Knox Creek drainage above Cle Elum Lake. These are suspected to have run on the mid-January crust later in the storm cycle of Feb 5-9th.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    A wind shift is about to happen. Last weekend, strong west winds transported snow in open and wind-exposed terrain. On Thursday, easterly winds will begin to form reactive, shallow slabs. You may find wind slabs on all aspects at upper elevations because of this. Feel for slightly thicker snow, and look for signs of active wind transport such as small plumes near ridgelines.  Any avalanche in the new snow could step down to deeper weaker layers and result in a very large and deadly avalanche above 4,500ft. Consider the terrain you're connected to and avoid steep, open wind loaded slopes. 

    Example wind drifting. Photo: Shane Robinson

Avalanche Discussion

We are in the midst of a prolonged period of dangerous conditions for persistent slab avalanches throughout many NWAC zones. Over the past week, there have been many very large avalanches and avalanche involvements including the following:

A very recent, natural avalanche occurred at Snoqualmie Pass on a Northeast aspect at 5,000ft (see photo below). February 8th-Two snow bike riders were caught and buried by a very large avalanche in the mountains west of Salmon la Sac Sno-Park along Cle Elum Lake (See the short video in the media gallery below). One snow biker was partially buried and was able to dig himself out. The other rider was fully buried and killed. The avalanche (HS-AV-R3-D3-O) occurred on a northeast aspect at 4400 ft in the Knox Creek drainage. Our deepest condolences to the family, friends and community.

On Saturday, a D3 avalanche resulted in a full burial with no injuries near the Easton Sno-Park. A natural avalanche on the east aspect of Sixtysix Hundred Ridge in the Icicle drainage was roughly 1500ft wide and ~3ft deep. Second-hand reports of remotely triggered avalanches in the Salmon La Sac came in on Sunday. Other natural avalanches were observed that likely occurred between the 6th and 8th near Van Epps Pass , a southwest aspect at 6,500ft in the Icicle, and a west aspect at 6,100ft near Mt Daniel. 

During the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, continue to follow the latest guidance from local, state, and federal health officials. Avoid unnecessary risks that could impact first responders and stress medical resources. Wear a mask when appropriate, practice social distancing, and consider recreating closer to home.

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