The snowpack structure is complex and varies throughout the region. A conservative approach is essential.
Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Monday
Weather Forecast
The Pacific frontal system will push through the interior regions Sunday night through Monday. This will bring light-moderate snow amounts and strong SW-W winds.Monday: Snow amounts 10-20 cm. Alpine temperatures near -5. Ridgetop winds moderate from the West. Freezing levels 800 m.Tuesday: Mainly cloudy with some flurries. Alpine temperatures near -14. Ridgetop winds moderate from the West gusting strong. Freezing levels back to valley bottom.Wednesday: Cloudy, and dry. Alpine temperatures near -8. Ridgetop winds light from the West.
Avalanche Summary
On Sunday, explosive controlled size 2-3 slab avalanches were reported. These all failed on the early October crust. Currently widespread loose dry sluffing from steeper terrain slopes and features has been reported. With new snow and strong ridgetop winds, you can expect the avalanche danger to rise Monday/ Tuesday.
Snowpack Summary
Low density new snow covers stiff, dense wind slabs in exposed lee terrain at and above treeline. Average snowpack depths at treeline elevations are 100-130 cm. In the upper 80 cm of the snowpack a couple persistent weak layers exist, comprising of surface hoar and a facet/ crust combo. This interface has produced variable results with snowpack tests, and operators are keeping a close eye on them as the load above increases and/or a slab develops.A bigger concern, especially in the Northern part of the region where the snowpack is thinner and more variable is weak faceted and depth hoar crystals combined with a crust from early October. This is now down around 80-120 cm. This deep persistent weakness may be stubborn to trigger, especially in deeper snowpack areas, but the sensitivity to triggers likely increases in shallower locations, especially on steep, convex, north-facing slopes.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.