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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 13th, 2014–Feb 16th, 2014

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

A good time to be very conservative with your terrain choice. Human triggering should be expected on steep slopes and in open areas.

Weather Forecast

Systems are forecast to arrive Friday midday, 10 cm with some clearing Saturday morning, Saturday night,20cm, and Sunday night, 15cm, clearing Tuesday morning. Winds may diminish a bit between systems but will remain moderate and gusty W-SW. Temperatures will also remain mild with freezing levels reaching 1600m during the day.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 50 cm of snow since Monday arrived with gusty West winds and mild temperatures forming slabs above 20 cm of weak faceted crystals. Crusts exist beneath this combination on SE- Sw slopes which seem very touchy. Rapid loading is forecast to continue and threatens to wake up the weak snow that lingers at the base of the snowpack in shallow areas

Avalanche Summary

A widespread cycle to size 2 occurred Tuesday as the initial storm formed soft slabs over the facets. Remote triggering was observed at this point and should remain a concern for travelers. Natural activity diminished Wednesday, however on Thursday, a forecaster triggered a South slope above a crust: stomping a foot resulted in a sz 2.5 avalanche.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.