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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 21st, 2013–Mar 24th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

Great skiing at higher elevations with 20cm of new snow, but still fair at lower elevations with new snow starting to cover the recent crust. Watch for solar heating to raise the hazard on sunny slopes Saturday and especially Sunday.

Weather Forecast

Friday, Saturday: overcast with light flurries, light winds, highs of -5 at tree line, 5-10 cm total. Sunday increasing winds out of the North, clear skies with the temperatures increasing to -3 at tree line. The increased solar radiation on Sunday will have a strong effect on the surface layers and affect stability on the snow above the crusts.

Snowpack Summary

20cm new snow overlies the March 21 rain crust that can be felt as high as 1900m and a sun crust that goes to ridge top on S aspects. This HN tapers with elevation covering moist snow and a weak crust below 1600m. There is 40 to 60 cm over the March 15 rain crust that is present to 2400m. Thin wind slabs forming at ridge crests N to SE aspects

Avalanche Summary

There has been a fair amount of loose dry activity out of extreme terrain after last week's major storm but surprisingly little slab activity. Yesterday rain as high as 1900m generated minor loose moist activity at lower elevations. New wind slabs are now forming as winds from the West have increased.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.