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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 31st, 2013–Jan 1st, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Little Yoho.

Happy New Year!  Great skiing can be found in sheltered areas W. of the Divide & ice climbing in unexposed terrain.  The recent snow, ongoing wind, and forecasted snow - we may put us at the tipping point for a widespreaad avalanche cycle. LP

Weather Forecast

Moderate to strong ridge top west winds expected for tomorrow and into Thursday and could trigger further avalanches along and W of the Divide.  A major system expected for Thursday and Friday bringing 20-30 cm with more wind.  If this occurs the hazard will rise to High for both days.

Snowpack Summary

W. of the divide there is 40-70 cm of fresh snow over the past 5 days and 10-20 cm on the East. Continued west winds have added to the slab condition in the alpine and at treeline.  The treeline snowpack depth is roughly 1 metre deep. The midpack is supportive on skis but is consists mostly of weak facets with a persistent weak layer at the ground.

Avalanche Summary

In the last 12-24 hrs there have been several avalanches. A natural size 3 in alpine S. asp terrain near Lake Louise (National Geographics), a size 2 scrubbed over Pilsner Pillar climb near Field, and a healthy sz 2 on Twin Cairns near Sunshine - all slid to ground. Also, 2 size 2 storm slab slides occurred at the TL elevation, Emerald Lake area.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Thursday

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.