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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 7th, 2019–Jan 8th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Recent winds have left behind wind slabs and built cornices. Keep track of where you are in the terrain to avoid these areas.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY: Around 10 cm snow beginning late morning. Freezing level near valley bottom. Moderate to strong southerly winds, with the chance of strong outflow winds at low elevations. Alpine high -5. Expect a further 10 cm snow overnight.WEDNESDAY: 10-15 cm snow. Freezing level near 1200 m. Moderate south-easterly winds. Alpine high near -3. Expect a further 20 cm snow overnight. THURSDAY: 10-15 cm snow. Freezing level near 1400 m. Moderate southerly winds. Alpine high near -2. More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous size 1-2 storm slabs and cornice falls were triggered by explosives control on Monday. Human triggering of avalanches slowed down. While the recent storm slab problem is improving, incoming weather is expected to create new avalanche problems by Wednesday.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 140 cm recent storm snow was shifted into slabs on slopes lee to the south-east to south-west. In general, the recent storm snow is slowly gaining strength and settling. New storm slabs are expected to build by Tuesday afternoon. At treeline and below, the storm snow sits on two weak layers that are down 80-100 cm and 150-200 cm. These layers consist of surface hoar (feathery crystals) in more sheltered areas and a crust on solar aspects and on all aspects below 1500m.In the lower snowpack, a weak layer of facets (sugary snow) is now over 200 cm deep. There have been no reports of avalanches on this layer for over a week, but it may still be reactive to heavy loads (such as a cornice fall) in isolated areas.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.