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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 14th, 2019–Jan 15th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

The battle between winter and spring continues. A warm snowpack can weaken quickly, use caution around cornices and steep slopes until temperatures drop.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Freezing level dropping below 1000 m, temperature inversion. Alpine low near +1. Light winds. TUESDAY: Sunny and warm. Freezing level near 1900 m. Alpine high near +4. Light winds. WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Freezing level below 1600 m. Alpine high near 0. Light winds. THURSDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries, up to 10 cm. Freezing level 1400m. Alpine high near -1. Light to moderate east winds.More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Avalanche Summary

Several large cornice falls were triggered naturally and with explosives on Saturday. Some of these triggered size 2 slabs on slopes below. There is a trend of cornice falls increasing in size and frequency as the warm weather continues. Loose wet avalanches to size 2 were also failing naturally on sunny aspects on Saturday with continued reports into Sunday.On Sunday, three very large (size 3) slab avalanches were reported in the region. These avalanches occurred around 1500-1900 m and two of these avalanches were observed on south-south east aspects. It is likely that that solar warming and sluffing triggered these avalanches Friday or Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temperatures are weakening surface snow layers has made cornices extra touchy. The warmth can also penetrate into more deeply buried weak layers. Minimal overnight freeze is expected, meaning warming is likely to affect the snowpack early in the day.Refrozen crusts may be found on all aspects below about 1800-2000 m; and on sunny aspects in the alpine in some places. These may break down through the day. Cold, dry and possibly wind-affected snow may still be found on various aspects in the alpine. Variable instabilities exist in recent storm snow layers. Two weak layers exist in the upper 2 m of the snowpack at and below treeline. These layers consist of surface hoar (feathery crystals) in more sheltered areas and a crust on solar aspects and on all aspects below 1600m.In the lower snowpack, a crust/facet (sugar snow) layer is now over 2 m deep. This layer may still be reactive to heavy loads (such as a cornice fall) in isolated areas.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.