Solar radiation and warm alpine temperatures may increase the Avalanche Danger over the next few days.
Confidence
Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Weather Forecast
The current ridge of high pressure will bring clear skies for the forecast period. Ridgetop winds should remain light on Wednesday and Thursday, intensifying to moderate and southwesterly by Friday. An inversion should develop through the period with above-freezing alpine temperatures expected by Thursday.
Avalanche Summary
On Monday, size 1 soft wind slabs were ski cut in steep, unsupported alpine terrain. The new avalanches formed in response to new snow and wind. Small solar-induced loose wet avalanches have also been reported. The size and likelihood of loose wet avalanches will increase with warmer alpine temperatures expected during the forecast period.
Snowpack Summary
On the weekend, the region received 15-20cm of new low-density snow. At higher elevations, generally moderate southeasterly winds have redistributed much of that snow into soft wind slabs in exposed lee terrain. Solar radiation has also come into play, and depending on the time of day, steep solar aspects may be moist or refrozen.In the upper 70cm of the snowpack you may find a layer of weak surface hoar which was the culprit with a recent avalanche on an east aspect at treeline in the Fitzsimmons Range. Reports indicate this layer is spotty in its distribution, but may be something to watch as the overlying slab gets deeper and gains cohesion through settlement, warming and wind pressing.The mid and lower snowpack are generally considered to be strong and well-settled.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.