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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 8th, 2024–Feb 9th, 2024
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Expect loose dry sluffing in steep terrain and which will run fast where a crust is present.

Good skiing in the alpine rapidly deteriorates below 2000m with moist snow, old avalanche debris and a record low snowpack.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Midday on Wednesday, a cycle of natural and skier triggered loose dry avalanches were observed in the Connaught valley.

A group bootpacking a couloir on the S side of Avalanche Mtn triggered a sz 2.5-3 avalanche yesterday. Use caution in this extreme terrain, where the snowpack might be variable and weak.

Spring-like temperatures and rain last week triggered a widespread avalanche cycle. Many avalanches gouged to ground in gully features and reached the valley floor.

Snowpack Summary

15-20cm of new snow sits over a robust crust that formed during recent warm weather. This crust becomes thin and tapers out above 2500m.

Below 2000m the new snow has become moist and heavy, as it cools there will be a breakable surface crust. This, plus refrozen avalanche debris and shallow snowpack hazards make for RUGGED travel below treeline

Warm temperatures have rounded and strengthened the mid and lower snowpack.

Weather Summary

Expect convective flurries and a mix of sun and cloud Fri/Sat as we get into a clearing trend.

Tonight: Cloudy with clear periods, Trace amounts, Alp low -12°C, light winds, Freezing Level (FZL) 500m.

Fri: Sun/cloud, Alp high -10°C, light NW winds, FZL 900m.

Sat: Cloudy/Sun, nil precip, Alp high -6°C, West wind 15 km/hr, FZL 900m.

Sun: Cloudy, isolated flurries, 9cms, Alp high -5°C, , FZL 1300m.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Even brief periods of direct sun could produce natural avalanches.
  • Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.
  • Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Dry

20-40 cm of light snow is triggerable in steep terrain. This problem is more reactive where a crust below provides a good bed surface. Expect natural loose dry activity when the sun pops out!

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Wind Slabs

New snow accompanied by moderate winds formed soft wind slabs on leeward and cross loaded features in the alpine. This windslab is bonding poorly to the Feb 3 layer down 20-30. Where this windslab sits on a crust, it is particularly reactive and has the potential to run far.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2