Avalanche Forecast

After a period of wet, mild and windy conditions Thursday night through Friday night, a strong cold front is forecast to move through the area between 6-8 am Saturday. Rapid cooling behind this front will cause snow levels to fall quickly during the day. The previously wet snow surface should begin to refreeze quickly as rain turns to snow. As is often the case, the avalanche forecast depends on exactly how much snow and wind will accompany the cool down. We have high confidence the window for wet snow problems will have passed, but less confidence if enough snow will follow the cool down to create dangerous avalanche conditions on Saturday. 

Forecast Schedule

For the 2019-20 winter season, avalanche danger ratings will be issued for the Olympics every Friday through Sunday and during mid-week holidays. During the week, No Rating will be issued but forecasts will include expected conditions and relevant travel advice.  If you are out in the Olympics, please share your backcountry observations with us.

Looking Back at January

As we turn the corner from January to February, this is a good time to look back at the last month’s snow, weather, and avalanche conditions. January was notable for continuous storms and elevated, yet quickly resolving avalanche danger. In most parts of the region, the snowpack grew significantly. Snow depths went from far below average at the New Year to near normal by the end of the month. While numbers are still being compiled, January 2020 could rank high for total precipitation amounts in some locations. As we move forward, there are currently few layers of concern in the existing snowpack.

Snotel weather stations report well above average precipitation amounts for the month of January. Source: www.nrcs.usda.gov

 

Weather

January was marked by an onslaught of storms with very few breaks in precipitation lasting 24, or even 12 hours. Most notable was the sheer amount of precipitation that these storms delivered. Most NRCS Snotel weather stations are reporting at least 125% of average precipitation amounts for January, with many over 200% of average. Not all of this fell as snow. Snow levels and temperatures were less consistent than the overall stormy weather. On the heels of a warm December, the first week of the New Year followed suit. From about January 8th through the 19th a cold period had its grasp on the state, bringing snow to the lowlands and copious amounts of light, champagne powder to the mountains. The last third of the month saw continued storms. Temperatures moderated and warm air brought occasional rain to middle and even upper elevations. 

 

A small skier triggered avalanche (D1) within new snow on a NE aspect at 5600ft on Mt. Herman. 01/28/20 Photo: Zack McGill

 

Snow and Avalanche Danger

After a meager start to the winter, the snowpack grew exponentially in January. In fact, the storms were so intense in the middle of the month that they challenged the accuracy of remote weather stations. Snow blocked precipitation gages and knocked out cellular towers and phone lines used to transmit data. Currently, snow depths from reporting sites are near average.

While the storms often brought rapid spikes in avalanche danger, the hazard was quick to taper off. Throughout the month, there were 12 days when NWAC issued High Danger in one or more zones and 11 days when there was at least some Low Danger in forecasts. It’s notable that there were no days with all Low Danger in any forecast zone. In addition to the snowpack growth, a positive side to the storms was that weak layers had little time to form. In general, any facets or surface hoar that formed were very short-lived weak layers. Most avalanche problems involved new snow, wind or wet snow. There are still some areas of shallow, weak snowpack in typical places like the Wenatchee Mountains and the most eastern extent of the Cascade Mountains. Aside from that, the snowpack layering in most zones is marked by a few lingering storm interfaces in the upper snowpack and intermittent crusts from rain events. If you dig in the snowpack around the region, the most prominent crusts you’ll find formed from rain events roughly around January 1-3rd, 7th, MLK weekend, 23-25th, and the 31st.

The winter snowpack is now well established for recreating and traveling through the mountains. Much more so than it was a month ago. Looking ahead, there’s a good chance this stormy pattern will continue at least into early February. We’ll keep monitoring how the snowpack continues to change near the surface with each weather event. You can check the daily Avalanche and Mountain Weather forecasts for the most up to date information.