Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Stevens Pass.
The avalanche danger is low. Avoid steep sun exposed slopes if snow becomes wet in more than the top few inches; small wet loose slides could be problematic in isolated areas.
Detailed Forecast
A mild day with increasing mid and high level clouds is expected on Friday. Despite the high freezing levels, Friday should be relatively cooler than earlier in the week. Increased cloud cover should also minimize the loose wet avalanche problems even on steep solar aspects.Â
Remember that areas with shallow snow may become unstable first or may initiate from rocks or vegetation. Avoid steep sun exposed slopes when snow becomes wet in more than the top few inches.
As a general backcountry travel safety note, watch for terrain hazards (exposed rocks, trees, streams, etc) at lower elevations and on wind scoured aspects. On non-solar aspects with a slick and supportable crust, take extra caution when traversing steep slopes and be prepared to self-arrest if necessary. Â
Snowpack Discussion
West of the crest about 5-15 inches of snowfall Sunday was followed by about 3 to 7 inches of rain on Monday with a warming trend Sunday night through Monday. This led to a natural avalanche cycle west of the crest.
The largest avalanche observations came from the Baker area. The ski patrol there Monday reported widespread natural avalanches with consistent crown depths of about 2 feet. NWAC observer Jeff Hambelton scouting the aftermath on Tuesday in the Mt Baker area found evidence of widespread loose and slab avalanches. An avalanche class also reported unstable snow Sunday via the NWAC Recent Observations. Smaller natural avalanches from this period were reported in the Stevens Pass and Crystal area based on limited field observations. Â
Sunny and unseasonably warm weather continued in the Olympics and Cascades through mid-week. West of the crest this has been allowing draining, consolidation, stabilizing and a general reset of the upper or even entire snowpack. Wet grains are slowly re-freezing throughout the snowpack. Surface crusts vary greatly across elevations and aspects. Â
While the weather has been pleasant, ski conditions have generally been reported as poor over the last few days.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: South East, South, South West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Unlikely
Expected Size: 1 - 1