Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Northwest Inland.
There is uncertainty around how much increasing cloud and wind may limit wet avalanche concerns. Plan your day around avoiding sun-exposed slopes and cornices at peak daytime warming.
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels.
Weather Forecast
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy, moderate northwest wind with strong ridgetop gusts, alpine temperature near 0 C, freezing level dropping to 1200 m.Â
Wednesday: Increasing cloud, isolated flurries with trace accumulations, moderate northwest wind with strong ridgetop gusts, alpine high temperature -1 C, freezing level 1500 m.Â
Thursday: Mix of sun and cloud, light east wind, alpine high temperature -2 C, freezing level 1300 m.
Friday: Mix of sun and cloud, light southeast wind, alpine high temperature -3 C, freezing level 1300 m.
Avalanche Summary
Over the weekend, there were reports of numerous large (size 2) wet loose avalanches on south-facing slopes at all elevations and a few large (size 2-2.5) cornice failures on a variety of aspects.Â
One wet slab was suspected to have released on the November crust layer on a shallow west aspect in the alpine, triggered by a loose wet avalanche from above. Cornice fall, loose wet avalanches, or a rider hitting a thin spot in the snowpack are particularly concerning on steep, rocky slopes with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack as they are the most likely ways to trigger deeply buried weak layers.
Snowpack Summary
The snowpack has been undergoing a melt-freeze cycle with successive days of warm sunny weather. There is uncertainty as to how much the increasing cloud and wind on Wednesday will limit wet avalanche concerns. If there is strong solar radiation and warming, it will likely initiate wet loose avalanches as the snow loses cohesion. As the heat penetrates deeper into the snowpack, operators have reported larger wet slab avalanches. These avalanches are dense, destructive and can run far, reaching otherwise snow-free valley bottoms. Cornices are large and looming along ridgelines. Sun and warm temperatures will increase the chances of cornice failures. Check out the Forecaster's Blog for information on how to manage these spring conditions.
The snowpack is overall strong and settled in most areas, however, sustained warming can increase the likelihood of large avalanches failing on deeply buried weak layers. This is most likely to occur on steep, rocky alpine slopes with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack.
Terrain and Travel
- Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
- As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
- Minimize overhead exposure; avalanches triggered by warming or cornice fall may be large and destructive.
Avalanche Problems
Wet Slabs
The likelihood of wet slab avalanches increases during prolonged periods of warm temperatures, as the heat penetrates deeper into the snowpack. A couple large wet slab avalanches have been observed over the last few days. These avalanches are dense, destructive, and can run far, reaching otherwise snow-free valley bottoms.
Wet loose avalanche activity can also be expected on sun exposed slopes and below treeline. These avalanches are generally smaller than wet slabs, but they can gather mass as they travel and reach low elevations.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5
Cornices
Strong solar radiation and warming will likely trigger the large cornices that hang over ridge lines. Cornice falls are a hazard on their own, but could also trigger large avalanches on the slopes below.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3