Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Waterton Lakes.
New snow and continued wind will build slabs over the next few days. This is not the time to push the conditions as the healthcare system prepares to deal with COVID19.
Weather Forecast
10-20cm of snow is forecast arriving some time between Tuesday morning and Wednesday night. Winds will be moderate out of the west with a break on Wednesday afternoon. Freezing levels should remain at valley bottom with warmer temperatures and strong sunshine arriving on Thursday.
Snowpack Summary
A supportive crust exists on the surface that will be buried by incoming snow. The exception is straight north facing slopes where new snow will fall on settled powder in sheltered areas, and wind slabs everywhere else. The mid pack is strong and well settled. Basal instabilities haven't been seen in some time, but are likely lurking in thin areas.
Avalanche Summary
Avalanche activity in the last week has mainly been limited to loose wet avalanches up to size 2 on solar aspects with daytime warming. The exception was one loose avalanche that stepped down to a deep persistent slab in steep, rocky, unsupported terrain along the Akamina parkway.
Confidence
Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
New snow paired with moderate west winds will form windslabs. The timing of the incoming precipitation is uncertain so keep a close eye on what the weather is doing over the next few days.
- Use caution in lee areas. New snowfall mixed with wind loading is creating Wind Slabs.
- Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of of strong sun, or heavy loading from new snow and wind.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Loose Wet
Sunny skies on Thursday means loose avalanches on solar aspects. Watch for the obvious signs of moist surface snow and pinwheeling, and avoid overhead hazard, especially where cornices are involved (think Mt. Bertha).
- Avoid slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if they have large cornices overhead.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1.5