Avalanche Forecast
Regions: South Coast.
Happy New Year!
A wet and windy storm means that a widespread avalanche cycle is expected. Avoid avalanche terrain, including overhead hazard.
Confidence
High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.
Weather Forecast
THURSDAY NIGHT - Wet snow mixed with rain, 20-40 cm/mm / southwest wind, 40-60 km/h, gusting to 80 km/h / alpine low temperature near 0 / snow level 900 m
FRIDAY - Wet snow and rain, 30-50 cm/mm, with another 15-30 cm/mm overnight / southwest wind 60-80 km/h / alpine high temperature near 2 / snow level 1400 m
SATURDAY - Wet snow and rain, 40-80 cm/mm, with another 70-90 cm/mm overnight / southwest winds 70-90 km/hr / alpine high temperature near 2 / snow level 1200 m
SUNDAY - Snow, 15-30 cm / west wind, 40-60 km/h / alpine high temperature near 0 / snow level 900 m
Avalanche Summary
Avalanche activity is expected to be widespread on Friday.
At the time of publishing, there were a few size 1-2 explosives triggered avalanches reported in the North Shore mountains on Thursday.
There were numerous avalanches up to size 1.5 reported in the North Shore mountains during the storm on Wednesday. It is likely that a widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred throughout the region on Wednesday as well, especially at higher elevations.
Many thanks for all of the great MIN report submissions on Wednesday!
Snowpack Summary
Depending on elevation, the region may see up to 90 cm of snow, or 90 mm of rain between Thursday night and Friday afternoon.Â
This will bring recent fresh snow amounts to as much as 150 cm, and the new snow sits on a crust in many areas, and may also sit on surface hoar in some places.Â
Around 100-200 cm of snow now overlies a hard melt-freeze crust up to around 1500 m.
The remainder of the snowpack is well-settled.
Terrain and Travel
- Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
- Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy rain.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Heavy snowfall will create widespread and reactive wind slabs.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Loose Wet
Rain on snow at lower elevations will likely create wet loose avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2