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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 13th, 2021–Jan 14th, 2021
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Freezing levels are forecast to rise to the mountain top. This may break down the crust and initiate natural and human triggered loose wet avalanche activity. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud and freezing levels rising through the day to 2500 m. 

Friday: Cloudy with gusty ridgetop wind. Up to 20 mm forecast overnight Thursday and freezing levels drop to 1000 m on Friday. 

Saturday: Cloudy with light to moderate West wind. Freezing levels spike to 1900 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported on Wednesday.

On Tuesday, numerous wet loose avalanches and small glide avalanches were reported. 

Depending on how warm the temperatures get on Thursday, another round of loose wet avalanches may happen by Thursday afternoon from steeper terrain features. Avoid slopes that have overhead hazards like cornices. 

Snowpack Summary

The recent storm saw 100 mm of precipitation by early Wednesday morning, with it falling mostly as rain to the mountain tops. As the temperatures rapidly dropped overnight Tuesday, some precipitation fell as snow in alpine locations. Only the highest peaks may have received snow possibly forming reactive storm/ wind slabs in those higher locations.

At treeline and below a rain-soaked/ saturated snowpack will form a firm crust as the temperatures drop Wednesday. This crust may start to break down mid-day on Thursday due to rising freezing levels. 

At treeline elevations, the mid-pack consists of several buried crusts, and the remainder of the snowpack is well-consolidated.

Terrain and Travel

  • Choose conservative terrain and watch for clues of instability.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Watch for unstable snow on specific terrain features, especially when the snow is moist or wet.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Freezing levels are expected to rise to 2500 m by the afternoon. If the warm temperatures break down the crust expect loose wet avalanches to occur, especially from steeper terrain features. 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Wind Slabs

Reactive slab avalanches may exist only in the high alpine from recent snow and wind. Slabs will be thickest in lee terrain features, as the snow fell with a strong southwest wind. 

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2