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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 5th, 2021–Jan 6th, 2021
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast.

Heavy snowfall combined with strong to extreme wind overnight Tuesday will push avalanche danger to high at upper elevations. Give the new snow time to stabilize.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday Night: Heavy snowfall or rain, accumulation 20-40 cm, strong to extreme southwest wind, treeline high temperature 0, freezing level 1100 m.

Wednesday: Mainly cloudy, strong wind easing to moderate southwest, treeline high temperature 0, freezing level 1200 m.

Thursday: Sun and cloud, lightto moderate southwest wind, treeline high temperature 2, freezing level rising to 1500 m.

Friday: Snow or rain, moderate southwest wind, freezing level 900 m.

Avalanche Summary

There are no recent avalanches to report, although I would expect an increase in storm and wind slab avalanche activity at upper elevations overnight Tuesday and very early morning Wednesday. As well, lower elevations may see an increase in wet loose activity in steep terrain below the 1100 m elevation band.

Snowpack Summary

Precipitation arriving Tuesday afternoon and evening was expected to arrive as snow at uppermost elevations. Recent storm totals for the last week at upper elevations are upwards of 200 cm. This snow has likely seen extensive wind effect but we have received no alpine observations. Recent snow may contain and/or sit on a crust. At lower elevations, the previously rain soaked mid to lower snowpack will be dense and refrozen, or still wet below 1000 m.

The remainder of the snowpack is well-settled.

Terrain and Travel

  • Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 30 cm of new snow.
  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Heavy snowfall combined with wind will likely create widespread and reactive storm slabs at uppermost elevations. Forecast strong to extreme southwest wind Tuesday night has likely created deep deposits in exposed lee terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5

Loose Wet

Rain on snow at lower elevations may create conditions for wet loose avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2