Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday

Another 3-5mm of precipitation is expected Monday overnight. Light lingering flurries are expected for Tuesday with freezing levels around 1000m and light NW winds in the alpine. A ridge of high pressure should keep the region dry on Wednesday. A mix of sun and cloud is expected with light winds. Another warm, wet system is expected for Thursday with models currently showing around 10-20mm of precipitation falling during the day on Thursday. Unfortunately, freezing levels are forecast to rise to over 2000m again. This looks like the theme for the weekend with heavy precipitation and high freezing levels until at least Sunday.

On Sunday, small soft wind slabs were reported to be reactive to skier triggering.  Observations from the region have been limited but conditions are expected to be similar to the Sea-to-Sky where skier-triggered and explosive-triggered avalanches have been limited to size 1 and isolated to wind-loaded features.  Similar conditions are expected on Tuesday with natural avalanches not expected and skier-triggered avalanches remaining possible in wind-loaded features.

10-20cm of new snow overlies a hard rain crust that exists up to at least 2100m. In exposed terrain, the new accumulations have been shifted by strong SW winds into wind slabs which may be especially reactive due to the underlying crust. Deeper snowpack weaknesses have become unreactive on account of the strong capping crust layer.