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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 26th, 2014–Dec 27th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

The overnight storm will quickly raise the hazard for Saturday. Give the new snow time to stabilize and stick to simple terrain.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

The weak storm system exits the region on Saturday morning and will be replaced by a ridge of high pressure. This ridge is expected to persist for several days. Friday night's storm is currently forecast to yield 20-30mm of precipitation for much of the region. On Saturday, snow should taper off in the morning, brief periods of sun are possible, freezing levels around 700m, and light-to-moderate northerly alpine winds. Sunday should be mostly clear and dry with freezing levels dropping to valley bottom and moderate NE alpine winds. Monday should be pretty much the same with colder temperatures.

Avalanche Summary

No new reports were received on Thursday or by publish-time on Friday. On Wednesday we received reports of natural avalanches up to size 2 from steep terrain features around treeline elevation. Explosive control on Wednesday produced storm slab and wind slabs up to size 2.5. Most of the activity was on north through east aspects. Natural activity is expected on Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

The new snow sits on a well-settled snowpack.  Between Dec 18-24 over 1m of snow fell in many parts of the region.  The instabilities associated these storms appear to have healed but there may be lingering concerns such as old wind slabs or cornices. The new storm snow will come with strong W-NW winds some new wind slab formation can be expected. The mid and lower snowpack contains several old crust layers but these layers appear to be well bonded.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New storm instabilities will quickly form Friday night. The main problems are expected to be wind slabs in exposed areas and loose dry from steep features but a more widespread storm slab may form in areas that receive the most snowfall.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3