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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 30th, 2014–Jan 31st, 2014
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Purcells.

Loose sluffing of new snow is expected in steep terrain. Use increased caution around terrain traps where consequences of a small sluff could be serious. In the south, moderate alpine winds on Friday may create a wind slabs in lee features.

Confidence

Fair - Wind speed and direction is uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure once again dominates conditions in the interior during the forecast period. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud, dry conditions, treeline temperatures around -12, mountain-top winds up to 35 km/h NWSaturday/Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud, dry conditions, treeline temperatures around -15, light NW mountain-top winds

Avalanche Summary

Reports of small natural and human-triggered loose sluffing from steep terrain features.

Snowpack Summary

The upper and mid-snowpack are generally well consolidated and layers are well bonded. However, a facet/crust weakness near the bottom of the snowpack remains a concern. The depth of this layer makes triggering an avalanche unlikely but the consequences would be large, destructive avalanches. This is referred to as a 'low probability, high consequence' event. We are recommending avoiding thin or rocky areas on steep, convex, unsupported slopes. In most areas, a widespread weak layer is now buried by new snow (around 10cm in the northern part of region, 20cm+ in the area around Kimberley). This weak layer consists of large surface hoar (widespread in most sheltered and shaded areas at all elevations), a sun crust on open south facing slopes, facet grains (in colder areas or areas with a thinner snowpack), or a combination of any of the above. This layer may become a problem in the future when we finally get more snowfall.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Moderate NW winds forecast for Friday may redistribute the new storm snow and create soft-slabs in immediate leeward features.  This is primarily a concern for areas in the southern part of the region which received greater new snowfall (20cm+).
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Be careful with wind loaded pockets >

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2