Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 9th, 2023 4:00PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Dry.

Avalanche Canada JH, Avalanche Canada

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The peak of our next storm will cause a spike in avalanche hazard Friday morning.

With lots of recent snow available for entrainment, natural avalanches could run far and fast. Limit your overhead exposure.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A cycle of natural avalanches occurred during Tuesdays storm, ranging from size 2-3.5. Most notably, there was a natural size 3.5 reported out of the Grizzly path in Connaught, this avalanche ran over the standard skin track.

Avalanche control on Tuesday was effective in producing widespread avalanches throughout the park, up to size 3.5, failing in the recent storm snow with large powder components.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 45cm of storm snow has fallen in the past week, with another 15-20cm forecast to fall by Friday evening. Combine this with warm temps and strong SW winds, and you have the perfect recipe for reactive storm slabs.

The mid-snowpack is generally well bonded rounded grains.

The basal Nov 17 deep persistent weak layer has not produced any slab avalanches in GNP for a couple of weeks now, but persists in many places as faceted crystals - these are accompanied by a decomposing crust in some locations.

Weather Summary

Unsettled weather continues into the weekend, with a cold front giving steady snowfall Friday.

Tonight: Cloudy w/flurries (5-10cm), Alpine low -7°C, moderate SW ridgetop winds.

Friday: Snow (5-10cm). Alpine High -7°C. Moderate gusting extreme SW ridgetop winds.

Sat: Cloudy with isolated flurries. Low -9°C, High -8°C. Moderate SW wind.

Sun: Cloudy with flurries (5-10cm). Low -9°C, High -6°C. Light SW wind.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
  • Caution around slopes that are exposed to cornices overhead.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

New snowfall and wind on Friday will build fresh storm slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Dry

An icon showing Loose Dry

Watch for fast moving loose snow avalanches in steep terrain. These will be particularly reactive on solar aspects, were a thin crust formed on Wednesday.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Feb 10th, 2023 4:00PM