Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 12th, 2015–Jan 13th, 2015

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

Very challenging skiing out there right now. Not very inspiring to ski the alpine at the moment. If you can find sheltered areas at treeline, the skiing is actually quite good.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

The northwest flow is with us for at least another three days. As can be predicted with this flow, the skies will remain clear with light to moderate winds at all elevations. The temperatures will be reasonable with alpine temps hovering around -10. Expect shady, sheltered areas to be much colder as the air settles.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches

Snowpack Summary

Forecasters went to Little Tent Ridge today to have a look at W and NW aspects. At 2250m there was 100cm of snow. A 5cm thick reactive hardslab was down 20cms, followed by the fairly dense midpack. Beneath this, the old Nov24 facets were very weak. Surprisingly, the Nov6th crust was intact and still 4cm thick. It sat 15cm's above the ground and rested on a well settled layer of facets. No depth hoar. The stability tests gave two alarming results: a moderate, fast failure(CTM11, sudden plainer) below the upper windslab and a moderate sudden collapse(CTM14) on the Nov 24 facets, down 70cm. There was no sign of the Dec13th crust. Elsewhere the snowpack was very predictable and in tune with other locations. The Dec13th crust down 25cm's, and a midpack that continues to get weaker. The alpine has widespread wind slabs that make for tricky, and potentially dangerous conditions.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

The alpine has been packed solid with windslabs. Very tricky skiing. Avoid steep, convex terrain.

Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

Watch open areas at treeline. Avoid steep, unsupported terrain.

Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Deep Persistent Slabs

Forecasters found this layer intact today. It is still there, lurking beneath the snowpack.

Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5