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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 22nd, 2018–Dec 23rd, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Little Yoho.

The weak layers in the snowpack are unlikely to stabilize quickly. Human triggered avalanches are likely for a while yet. Make conservative terrain choices.

Weather Forecast

Cold (mid teens) and cloudy. Conditions are unlikely to have much effect on the forecast.

Snowpack Summary

An average 60- 100cm of recent storm snow with variable wind effect now sits over the Dec. 10 facet/surface hoar interface. At low elevations the snowpack is weak with the October 26 depth hoar, facets and crust near the base. Snow pack depths range from 130-200cm at ~2000 m.

Avalanche Summary

The natural cycle continued into this morning throughout the forecast area. Large avalanches to size 3 were noted.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Recent snow has now overloaded the Oct. 26 deep persistent layer of facets and depth hoar, and there is enough mass now to cause large avalanches.
Good day to make conservative terrain choices.Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Persistent Slabs

The Dec. 10 persistent layer of facets and surface hoar is now buried 40 - 80cm. Avalanches have either been independently running on this layer, or stepping down to the basal weakness.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Wind Slabs

Fresh wind slabs from strong winds over the last 2 days have formed within the new storm snow. These will be most prevalent in the lee of features and may stay reactive over the next couple of days.
If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2