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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 27th, 2018–Dec 28th, 2018
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast.

The start of the weekend's storm begins on Friday with light snowfall. All this recent storm snow may need more time to bond to the snowpack.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy, freezing level 600 m.FRIDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 10 cm, light to moderate west winds, treeline temperature -2 C, freezing level 600 m.SATURDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 30 to 40 cm, strong southwest winds, treeline temperature 0 C, freezing level 1500 m.SUNDAY: Mostly sunny, light north winds, treeline temperature -2 C, freezing level 700 m.

Avalanche Summary

Recent storm snow was reported to be reactive on Wednesday and Thursday. This MIN report indicates that storm slab properties and small avalanches were observed throughout their tour near Mt. Seymour. Similar observations were reported in other regions of the North Shore on Thursday.Expect avalanche activity to increase over the weekend, as an incoming storm will drop substantial snowfall with strong winds and increasing freezing levels.

Snowpack Summary

Around 20 cm of recent snow may not be bonding well to underlying surfaces. This is particularly the case in the north of the region, where the snow may have fallen on a weak layer of feathery surface hoar.Deeper, about 60 cm of recent snow sits on a thick melt-freeze crust. Reports indicate that the snow is bonding well to the crust in certain areas but may be slower to bond in other areas.The middle and lower snowpack are well-settled. Snow depths increase substantially with higher elevations. Expect to find about 200 cm at treeline elevations.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Recent storm snow may not bond well to the snowpack. Deeper in the storm snow, reports suggest that about 60 cm of snow may not be bonding well to an underlying hard crust.
Observe for the bonding within the storm snow before committing to avalanche terrain.Avoid travel near cliffs or gullies, where small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2