Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday

FRIDAY NIGHT: Brief clearing overnight, moderate wind out of the west, alpine temperatures drop to -10 C.SATURDAY: Snow starting midday bringing about 5-15 cm of snow by the end of the afternoon and another 10-20 cm overnight, strong wind from the south increasing to extreme throughout the day, freezing level climbing to 1000 m, alpine high temperatures around -3 C.SUNDAY: Continued flurries with about 10-20 cm of snow throughout the day, wind easing but still strong from the south, freezing level steady around 800 m, alpine high temperatures around -5 C.MONDAY: Light flurries with localized accumulations up to 10 cm, strong wind from the south, freezing level steady around 800 m, alpine high temperatures around -5 C.

A social media report from the Shames area on Tuesday described active avalanche conditions with lots of whumpfing and numerous small (size 1) to large (size 2) natural releases observed even with poor visibility at treeline elevations. These storm slabs failed at the old snow surface, noted as a crust in this area.Although the weather has certainly been limiting observations, we can expect a continuation of this natural avalanche activity during the barrage of storms hitting the region.

Another 10-15 cm of snow on Friday brought storm totals from the past week up to 100-150 cm, effectively doubling snowpack depths from before the storm. Strong to extreme southwest and west winds are likely forming the thickest deposits on lee slopes at high elevations. Wind effect is most pronounced near the coast.The new snow has been observed bonding poorly to the weak surface hoar and facets that formed our pre-storm snow surface. The surface hoar is likely to be especially prominent on sheltered slopes at treeline while surface faceting was likely more widespread. Deeper in the snowpack, there are reports of several crusts including an early season crust with facets near the bottom of the snowpack.