Avalanche danger is on the rise, especially in windy areas where 15 cm new snow accumulates by the end of Tuesday. The Monashees will probably have the highest snow amounts from Tuesday's storm.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Monday Night: 2-5 cm new snow expected overnight.Tuesday: 10-20 cm new snow expected with increasing moderate or strong southwesterly winds. Freezing level around 600 m.Wednesday: Flurries. Moderate westerly winds. Freezing level around 1000 m.Thursday: Light snow, around 5 cm. Strong southwesterly winds. Freezing level rising to around 1400 m.
Avalanche Summary
Expect wind slab avalanches in exposed areas and loose dry avalanches in more sheltered locations.
Snowpack Summary
10-20 cm of mostly low density new snow now rests on the previous snow surface. I expect this new snow to be initially poorly bonded, meaning the new snow will sluff readily in steep terrain. Wind slabs can be expected on north as east facing slopes in exposed areas. Lower in the snowpack, there is a weak layer of feathery surface hoar crystals down about 30-50 cm that may coexist with a sun crust on steeper south facing slopes at treeline elevations. This layer has not been very active although there is a small chance it could awaken in response to new snow.At the base of the snowpack is a crust that formed in late October. Steep, rocky, alpine terrain with a shallow snowpack would be the most likely areas to trigger this layer. It would likely take a large load such as a cornice fall to produce an avalanche on this layer.
jfloyer,
Avalanche Canada
