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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 2nd, 2024–Mar 3rd, 2024
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Continue to choose conservative, low consequence terrain and beware of overhead and adjacent slopes. Remote triggering is a concern.

Solar input could weaken this already scary snowpack.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Numerous large to very large natural and human triggered persistent slab avalanches continue to be reported throughout the region. Some have run full path to valley bottoms. Many of the human triggered avalanches have been reported as remotely triggered (from a distance). This speaks to the sensitivity of the persistent slab.

As natural avalanche activity tapers, the snowpack will remain primed for rider-triggered avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

A variety of surfaces can be found including a new crust on sun exposed terrain and wind effect in the alpine.

50 to 120 cm overlies a layer of surface hoar in wind-sheltered terrain, weak facets, or a hard melt-freeze crust on south and west-facing slopes.

A thick and hard widespread crust that formed in early February is buried about 70 to 150 cm deep and extends up to 2400 m. This crust may have a layer of facets above it. The snowpack below this crust is generally not concerning except in shallow alpine terrain.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy with 5 to 10 cm of new snow. 15 to 30 km/h southeast alpine wind switching to southwest. Treeline temperature  -11°C.

Sunday

A mix of sun and cloud with 5 cm of new snow. 5 to 25 km/h south alpine wind.  Treeline temperature -9°C.

Monday

Mostly cloudy with 5 to 10 cm of new snow. 10 to 25 km/h southwest alpine wind. Treeline temperature  -8°C.

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy with trace amounts of new snow. 5 to 20 km/h northwest alpine wind. Treeline temperature -14°C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Conservative terrain selection is critical, choose only well supported, low consequence lines.
  • Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent and overhead slopes.
  • Be aware of the potential for surprisingly large avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Avoid exposure to steep sun exposed slopes.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

A weak layer of faceted grains above a crust buried 60 to 120 cm deep is a recipe for large, high-consequence avalanches. Smaller slabs can easily step down and trigger larger, more destructive avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3.5

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs remain reactive to human traffic. Slabs are particularly touchy where they sit on weak layers of facets or surface hoar. Expect deeper and touchier slabs in lee terrain features near ridges.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3