Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 7th, 2020–Jan 8th, 2020
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast.

As the rain switches back to snow at lower elevations, snow may accumulate and take a bit of time to bond to the snowpack. If venturing to high elevations, be observant for thick storm slabs.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 20 cm, moderate to strong west wind, treeline temperature -3 C, freezing level 1300 m dropping to 500 m.

WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light northwest wind, treeline temperature -5 C, freezing level 500 m.

THURSDAY: Clear skies, light north wind, treeline temperature -6 C, freezing level below valley bottom.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 20 to 30 cm, strong southwest wind, treeline temperature -3 C, freezing level rising to 800 m.

Avalanche Summary

Storm slabs were reactive to human traffic on Monday. It is likely that a natural avalanche cycle occurred Monday night as the snow switched to rain. Avalanche activity is expected to decrease as the freezing level rapidly decreases on Tuesday night.

Snowpack Summary

As the freezing level drops from 1700 m to about 500 m on Tuesday night, rain will switch to snow. There is uncertainty on how much snow will accumulate at each elevation band. Expect thick storm slabs above around 1500 m and in the range of 5 to 20 cm of snow below 1500 m by Wednesday. There is also uncertainty on how this snow will bond to the snow beneath it. Your best bet is to make assessments as you travel, observing for new snow thickness and the bond of the new snow to the old surface.

Terrain and Travel

  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
  • Avoid lee and cross loaded slopes in the alpine.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

As the freezing level drops Tuesday night, precipitation will switch from rain to snow. We are uncertain on how quickly this will occur and how much snow will accumulate at each elevation band. As you travel, assess the height of new snow and use particular caution if you find more than 20 cm of accumulated dry snow. Assess the bond of the new snow before committing to avalanche terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2