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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 24th, 2019–Dec 25th, 2019
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Stevens Pass.

Happy Holidays! If you get out to try your new toys, remember that avalanches are still possible at upper elevations where the snow is dry. Expect difficult and potentially dangerous travel conditions due to refrozen crust at lower elevations. 

Discussion

Happy Holidays from all of us at NWAC! The recent atmospheric river event left 3ft of settled storm snow on the ground at Stevens Pass. A widespread, large avalanche cycle was reported from all elevations on the 20th and 21st. Rain was observed up to about 5,000ft. As a result, a sometimes breakable, sometimes supportable, but now frozen melt freeze crust can be found up to mid 5,000ft throughout much of the zone, making travel difficult at these lower elevations. 

If you venture further east in the zone, check out the East Central Zone forecast, as we have a persistent weak layer there. Watch this video I put together from my field day in the Icicle drainage on the 23rd for more. 

Cold nights, mostly clear skies, and some humidity are good conditions for surface hoar growth. December 24, 2019 in the Skyline area. Joseph Dellaporta photo.

Snowpack Discussion

New Regional Synopsis coming soon. We update the Regional Synopsis every Thursday at 6 pm.

 

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The storm slab is gaining strength, but this recent major storm event should give us pause, especially because all the new snow fell on a thin, early season snowpack. You may still be able to find that sweet spot where triggering a deep slab remains possible. Older, weak layers buried deep in the snowpack are a lingering concern, especially in areas further east in the zone. Use caution on convex slopes steeper than 35 degrees at upper elevations, and especially slopes that face the north half of the compass. Use snowpack tests to assess the bonding of layers within the snowpack. When in doubt, default to lower-angled terrain. Avalanches are unlikely near and below treeline where wet heavy snow has become firm and frozen with cooling temperatures.

Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.

 

Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1