Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Stevens Pass.
A warm and potent storm will create dangerous avalanche conditions. You can trigger avalanches in the new snow and in drifts at upper elevations. Expect rain and wet snow at lower elevations.
Discussion
Happy New Year! You can expect avalanche conditions to get more dangerous as you climb higher in the mountains. Both snow amounts and wind drifting will be more significant at upper elevations.
On Tuesday, the rain/snow line hovered around 5,000ft at Steven's Pass Mountain Resort. There's uncertainty around forecasted temperatures and the precipitation type and amount for the next 24 hours. The overall trend is for temperatures, winds, and precipitation to spike Tuesday night, with cooling temperatures and prolonged but diminished precipitation into Wednesday night. You may experience showery snow on Wednesday with possible breaks and bursts of precipitation.
Snowpack Discussion
New Regional Synopsis coming soon. We update the Regional Synopsis every Thursday at 6 pm.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
You can trigger avalanches in the new snow. Avalanches will be bigger and more dangerous at upper elevations. Watch for cracking in the snow or recent avalanches as signs of the danger. Use tests and small test slopes to check how easily the snow can slide. Check for poor bonds at interfaces within the new snow, between the new and old snow, and at any weak layers just below the old snow surface. Gusty winds could form deeper drifts on leeward sides of ridges and terrain features at upper elevations. You may encounter moist snow or even small wet avalanches below treeline.
Use caution on slopes 35 degrees and steeper where you find more than 6 inches of new snow. Be extra cautious around terrain traps such as gullies, rocks, and cliffs where even a small avalanche could have serious consequences. Avalanche conditions may be dynamic, changing throughout the day with the storm.
Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.
Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1