Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT : Cloudy. 10-20 cm of snow expected above 1250 m and rain below. Strong to extreme southwest wind. Freezing level around 1250 m.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with possible sunny periods. Possible trace of snow expected. Winds decreasing to moderate northwest by the afternoon. Freezing level 1000 m. Alpine low around -7 C.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. No new snow expected. Moderate to strong southwest wind. Possible above freezing layer making for temperatures above 0 C between 1500 and 2000 m. 

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. No new snow expected. Strong west wind trending to moderate by the afternoon. Possible above freezing layer making for temperatures above 0 C between 1500 and 2000 m. 

No new avalanches were reported before 4 pm on Wednesday. With warming through the day, moderate rain and snow, and continuing strong winds at high elevations, we expect that natural avalanches were occuring. Observations may come in as the weather clears.

On Tuesday in the Seaton riding area, our Northwest field team saw a similar avalanche to what they saw on Monday in Sinclair. They also had concerning results in their snowpack tests, and chose a safe path down accordingly. See more details here.

On Monday in the Sinclair riding area, our Northwest field team saw several, size 2, natural wind slab avalanches. These avalanches occurred in alpine terrain on east and northeast aspects. See their MIN report here for more details.

Freezing levels varied throughout the region, so watch for the transition from wet or crusty to dry snow in your area. The elevations below refer to areas around Smithers.

Below 1800 m, 10-30 mm of rain fell throughout the day on Wednesday, soaking the upper snowpack. Depending on how fast the freezing levels drop, a solid, supportive crust could form, or a thin breakable crust over moist snow. Prepare for challenging travel conditions, either slide-for-life, or super grabby.

Above 1800m there are areas that received up to 30cm of snow with strong SW winds, which will likely have formed reactive wind slabs on leeward features. 

In some areas a combination of two thin crusts with faceting above and below exists 40 to 50 cm deep. Deeper in the snowpack, two weak layers may exist around 60 to 120 cm deep. The first is a surface hoar layer from mid-January and the second is a layer of faceted snow from early January. These layers haven't produced recent avalanches, but they are producing concerning results in snowpack tests, and the potential remains until these layers bond to the snowpack.

• When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
• Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
• A crust on the surface will help bind the snow together, but may make for tough travel conditions.
• Stay off recently wind loaded slopes until they have had a chance to stabilize.
• Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, or solar radiation is strong.
• The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.