Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Mar 11th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Dry.
Jonas Hoke,
Confidence in the weather forecast is shaky.
If we receive more than 15cm of new snow, and/or the winds remain strong into Saturday, the danger rating may reach CONSIDERABLE at upper elevations.
Summary
Weather Forecast
A series of systems will bring snow, wind, and warming temps into next week
Tonight: Snow (10cm), Alpine low -8*C, strong SW ridgetop wind
Saturday: Flurries (4cm), High -5*C, moderate SW wind, freezing level (FZL) 1300m
Sun: Flurries (5cm), Low -6*C, High -5*C, moderate SW wind, FZL1500m
Mon: Snow (15cm), Low -6*C, High -4*C, strong SW wind, FZL 1500m
Snowpack Summary
New snow (up to 15cm by Saturday morning), is covering a variety of surfaces - a crust on steep solar aspects up to Treeline (widespread to 1500m), settled pow in shaded/sheltered areas, and wind effect in exposed alpine areas. The Feb 26 interface (small surface hoar or suncrust) lingers down 30-40cm but has not been reactive recently.
Avalanche Summary
On Friday, there was a skier triggered size 1 windslab on an alpine NE aspect in the Asulkan.
On Tuesday; there was a near miss in the Loop Brook drainage, when a rider remote triggered a size 2.0 slab at ridge top on a NE slope; a near miss from a cornice fall in MacDonald gully #11; and, a report of isolated wind slabs in the Illecillewaet valley.
Confidence
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm slabs will be thicker in areas lee to the strong SW winds forecast for the overnight period.
- The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.
- Enter your line well below ridge crests to avoid wind loaded pillows.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Dry
Expect your sluff to run fast where it overlies a crust.
- Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.
- On steep slopes, pull over periodically or cut into a new line to manage sluffing.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Mar 12th, 2022 4:00PM
