Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
Expect cool and spring-like conditions in the Olympics Saturday. Firm surface snow in the morning and on shady slopes may make stopping a fall difficult. Morning sunshine will soften the surface snow until clouds increase in the afternoon. If you see new roller balls or wet surface snow deeper than your ankle, it’s time to change slope aspect.
Detailed Forecast
Generally cool spring-like conditions will prevail in the Olympics Saturday, limiting the avalanche danger in this area. Firm surface snow in the morning will be found in most locations. Be careful if you travel on these slopes before they soften. If you fall it may be difficult to stop.
Morning sunshine will soften the surface snow until clouds increase in the afternoon. Expect this to occur first on steep sunny slopes moving from eastern to southern to western aspects as the day progresses. If you see new loose wet avalanches, notice new roller balls, or experience soft surface snow deeper than your ankle, it’s time to change slopes. Use aspect to stay ahead of any loose wet avalanche problems. Be aware of high consequence slopes such above cliffs or creeks where even a small loose wet avalanche may have higher consequences.
Snowpack Discussion
Periods of sunny weather and cool clear nights have created melt-freeze conditions on all slopes receiving direct sunshine. This surface crust should be generally supportable on sunny aspects.
On shaded slopes, a thinner melt-freeze crust formed last weekend. This crust is likely semi-supportable and may be covered by 1-2†of soft snow in some places. Soft snow will be most prevalent on shaded slopes at higher elevations.
Several layers exist within the snowpack. Currently we do not have any information suggesting that any of these layers are a potential problem.
Observations
NPS Rangers found a well settled snowpack on NE aspects around 5500' Thursday 3/15. They did not identify any layers of concern in the upper snowpack. No new or recent avalanches were observed.Â
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1