Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
The upper snowpack at treeline has become isothermal from rain and elevated freezing levels over the past 48 hours.
Wet avalanches will remain likely wherever overnight freeze hasn't created a thick overlying crust.
Take the time to assess the upper snowpack as you travel.
Confidence
Low
Avalanche Summary
A group exiting the Asulkan cabin Monday morning was able to easily trigger wet loose avalanches up to size 1.5 while descending the moraines.
Natural wet loose avalanche cycles, up to size 2, occurred on Sunday from solar warming and again on Monday from rain on snow in steep terrain at treeline and below.
Snowpack Summary
Treeline temps have remained above 0'C for the past 48 hours destabilizing the upper snowpack. As snow/rain continues overnight Monday, there will be uncertainty around the development of bridging crusts at treeline and below.
A 10-25cm thick crust from the March 27th rain event is buried 10-50cm deep
Persistent weak layers linger in the mid snowpack. Wet slabs have potential to fail on the early March crust on Tuesday, lower weak layers will likely remain inactive.
Weather Summary
Rain with snow above 2000m, snowline falling overnight.
Tonight Flurries (7cm). Wind SW 20 km/h gusting 50. Freezing Level (FZL) 1500m
Tue Mainly cloudy, scattered flurries (5cm). Alpine high -3°C. Wind SW 20 gusting 50. FZL 1900m
Wed Sun/cloud, isolated flurries, Trace precipitation. Alp high -5. Wind SW 20-30. FZL 1800m
Thu Sun/cloud, isolated flurries, Trace precip. Alp high 0. Wind SW 15-25. FZL 2000m
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Keep in mind that the high density of wet avalanches can make them destructive.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Fresh Storm slab is developing at treeline and in the Alpine. Storm slabs sit over a temperature crust formed on Sunday evening which will act as a very slippery bed surface and increase the reactivity of the new snow. This crust exists on all but North aspects in the high Alpine.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Loose Wet
Over the past 48 hours, elevated freezing levels and rain have saturated the upper snowpack at treeline and below.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Wet Slabs
Over the past 48 hours, elevated freezing levels and rain have saturated the upper snowpack down to the early March melt-freeze crust at treeline. Potential for wet slab avalanches on both the early and late March crusts exist.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3