Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
Man oh man! Is it ever wonderful to finally get a reset on the snowy slopes!? However...
The storm slab is perched atop weak, sugary facets. Tests on this new layer indicate human triggering is possible/likely, especially on unsupported features.
Adjust your objectives and stick to supported terrain with limited overhead hazards.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Natural avalanche activity has slowed down but still present in the hwy corridor. From Saturday night through Sunday, well over 150 avalanches were recorded from artillery and natural triggers.
Folks up the Connaught reported Frequent Flyer and Cheops N4 had avalanche debris into the valley on Sunday afternoon.
Low elevation areas (below 1000m) with a thin, faceted snowpack (ie Beaver Valley) purged their slopes after the warm sun baked them.
Snowpack Summary
40cm of heavy storm snow sits on a faceted upper snowpack. Strong to extreme SW winds created windslabs at Alpine and Tree-line elevations.
A weak layer of surface hoar, facets and/or suncrust (Jan 30th) is 50-80cm down. This layer is easy to pick out in the snowpack and is reactive in tests.
Low elevation zones with a thin snowpack should be treated with caution. The cold, weak facets at the base are now overloaded by the heavy, warm storm snow.
Weather Summary
Clouds, flurries, and freezing levels (FZL) around 1500m the next couple of days.
Tonight Cloud & sun with isolated flurries. Alp low -5°C. Ridge winds SW 10-30km/h. FZL 1300m
Tues Cloudy with sunny periods. Trace snow. Alp high -4°C. Ridge wind SW 15-25km/h. FZL 1600m
Wed Cloudy. Alp high -2°C. Ridge wind SW 20km/h. FZL 1400m
Thurs Cloudy, isolated flurries. Alp high -2°C. Ridge wind SW 40km/h. FZL 1500m
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
- Keep your guard up at all elevations. Wind slab formation has been extensive and could extend into openings below treeline.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Fresh snow, strong winds, and warm temperatures have created a storm slab. This sits on (yet another) weak layer of facets. Expect this to be most reactive in immediate lee features, such as along ridge-lines and cross-loaded gullies.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Persistent Slabs
The new snow overlays a buried persistent weak layer (PWL). This weak layer consists of surface hoar, facets and/or a suncrust. The storm snow has overloaded this PWL, producing large avalanches where it is present in the start zone or within the track of the path.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3