Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 14th, 2015–Nov 15th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Weather Forecast

We are in the lull between pulses of moisture.  The next pulse, starting sometime this afternoon, should bring us another 20-30cm snow by mid day tomorrow.  The avalanche danger will be increasing as the day progresses due to the incoming precipitation.

Snowpack Summary

52cm of storm snow have fallen in the last 24-36hrs accompanied by moderate to strong S through SW wind and warm temperatures. Backcountry travelers should expect freshly formed soft slabs on alpine lees. The storm slab rests on the touchy Nov 11th surface hoar layer. Expect human triggering on this layer given the right terrain.

Avalanche Summary

Field staff watched tree bombs trigger 2 size 1 slabs on the Nov 11 layer Friday. These slides were 25m wide and 50cm deep. Skiers were reporting whumphing and cracking on their tours. This morning there is a lull in precipitation until the next pulse hits this afternoon. Expect increasing avalanche danger as the day progresses.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

50cm+ of storm snow is sitting on a reactive Nov 11 surface hoar layer. Warm temperatures will have assisted settling the slab and made it more cohesive. Skier triggering of these slabs is likely.
Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, and shooting cracks.Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Wind Slabs

Moderate to strong southerly winds have been loading alpine lee features for the last three days. Expect thick soft windslabs on immediate lee features.
Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Dry

With the significant storm snow amounts expect sluffing in steep gully features.  This should be minor this morning but increasing with the next pulse of moisture this afternoon and evening.
Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2