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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 18th, 2016–Apr 19th, 2016
Alpine
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be below threshold
Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be below threshold
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold
Alpine
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be below threshold
Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be below threshold
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold
Alpine
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be below threshold
Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be below threshold
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold

Regions: Glacier.

The Winter Permit System is no longer in effect so get an early start! Freezing levels will rise this afternoon and stay high. When the surface crust breaks down the snowpack will become unstable.

Weather Forecast

Building high pressure over the region will give us sunny skies and start to drive temperatures up. Freezing level is forecast to go up to 3700m today which will give us an Alpine high of 13 deg. Winds will be S-15kph & there's no precip forecast in the next few days. Most models show freezing levels staying above 3700m until the middle of the week

Snowpack Summary

The melt-freeze crust on the surface is over 10cm thick, with the top ~5cm breaking down to "corn" by early afternoon. The crust will become weaker with forecast warm overnight temps.  A treeline profile yesterday showed an isothermal snowpack with consistent temps of 0 deg & the top 1.5m moist or wet.  N'ly asps above ~2300m still holding dry snow

Avalanche Summary

Two days ago a N facing slide path off Mt Green produced a sz 2 wet slab. Otherwise there has been little avalanche activity lately due to good overnight freezes of the snowpack. This will change with the forecast high freezing levels.  Expect glide-cracks to become more active, which are opening up on many slopes and can fail unpredictably

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

A strong surface crust exists and with good timing spring "corn" skiing can be had when the surface starts to break down. However when the crust has completely broken down loose wet avalanches will be easy to trigger and can entrain significant mass.
Start and finish early before the surface crusts melt.Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Wet Slabs

With the warms temps & strong solar radiation, avalanche activity will surely increase. Without a strong overnight freeze the snowpack will warm & lose its structure. As this happens it will sporadically fail as large destructive wet slab avalanches
Avoid exposure to overhead slopes with Glide Cracks. Avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.Use extra caution on solar slopes, or if the snow is moist or wet.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3