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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 5th, 2014–Dec 6th, 2014
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

Human triggered avalanches are possible in specific terrain. Expect avalanche danger to increase with incoming precipitation and rising freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

Mainly cloudy today with isolated flurries. Expect mild winter temperatures with freezing levels rising to 1600m. Ridge top winds S 12-25km/h. A warm system is moving in for Saturday bringing climbing freezing levels and moderate precipitation.  Possible temperature inversion on Saturday. Watch for cold air in the valleys and warm air up high.

Snowpack Summary

Sun crust on steep solar and widespread surface hoar was observed yesterday up to 2000m. Light snow will bury this surface hoar today, forming a new weak layer. November 21 and 9 persistent weak layers are buried down ~100 and ~130cm, and are less reactive. The failure character of these layers is still sudden planer. Breakable crust below ~1600m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed yesterday. Prior to the cold snap, a widespread avalanche cycle occurred. Large avalanches, with wide propagations, demonstrated the potential of buried weak layers. Some areas have not yet avalanched, for example the Frequent Flyer path up the Connaught Drainage.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent weak layers buried down ~1m and ~1.3m are cause for concern. They are capable of producing very large avalanches and may be triggered by skiers. Trigger points include steep alpine terrain, thin areas, and unsupported open slopes.
Be wary of slopes that did not previously avalanche - even on low angle terrain.Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3