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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 13th, 2015–Jan 14th, 2015
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Northwest Inland.

Careful attention to terrain choices are the "words to live by" right now. Buried surface hoar and facets could be triggered with a small avalanche.

Confidence

Fair - Due to the number and quality of field observations

Weather Forecast

Pacific moisture moving through the area for the next few days should bring us 5 to 10 cm of new snow by the end of Tuesday, with a break on Wednesday, then another 5 to 10 cm on Thursday and Friday. Winds from the S-SW, moderate to strong at upper elevations throughout the forecast period.  Freezing levels should remain around 500 m, but may spike to 1800m on Wednesday, then return to  around 500 m on Friday.

Avalanche Summary

No reports of avalanche activity yesterday.

Snowpack Summary

SW winds are creating wind slabs on lee aspects in exposed terrain, generally depositing snow on N and NE aspects. Below the recent storm snow is a rain crust at lower elevations and a temperature crust that formed on the surface above treeline from the recent temperature inversion. In the mid-pack a surface hoar layer has been reported, although it appears to be spotty in distribution. Near the base of the snowpack is a November crust-facet combination that will hopefully soon no longer be a problem.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Incoming precipitation will rebuild the wind slab problem.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.>Choose well supported terrain without convexities.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

This mid layer crust facet combination will take a long time to go away.  Rapid warming, rapid loading, or an avalanche event could bring this dragon back to life.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Use caution around convexities, ridge crests, rock outcroppings and anywhere else with a thin or variable snowpack.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 6