Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 1st, 2015 7:47AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada Peter, Avalanche Canada

Winds continue to dominate the headlines this season! Seek sheltered terrain to avoid wind slabs and find better snow quality.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: A center of low pressure crosses the region on Friday resulting in moderate precipitation – 10-15 cm. The freezing level should be at valley bottom and winds are moderate to strong from the west. The weekend looks mainly cloudy, cooler, and a bit drier. Expect 5 cm each day – maybe a bit more later on Sunday. Temperature should drop by around 8-10 degrees. Ridge winds are light on Saturday rising to moderate from the SW on Sunday.

Avalanche Summary

There is one new report of several small natural avalanches out of steep terrain and one size 2 slab from a steep SE aspect in the Babine Mountains between Dec 29-31. On Dec. 29 a rider triggered a size 1.5 avalanche on a north aspect in the alpine at 1700m in the Sinclair area. The small steep wind loaded slope was triggered when the machine was climbing, the rider reportedly rode out of the avalanche behind the debris. See the Mountain Information Network for a photo and more details.

Snowpack Summary

Strong outflow winds earlier this week left a variety of wind affected conditions in exposed terrain at all elevations. Some windward aspects and ridge lines were scoured down to bare ground. North facing slopes that still have snow are likely wind pressed. The thickest and likely hardest slabs should be found on south facing features and some degree of cross-loading is likely found everywhere else. A layer of buried surface hoar, down 30-50 cm, appears to be spotty in distribution but is still a concern. Near the bottom of the snowpack is a crust facet combo that was formed in mid-November. This layer is currently dormant and produces variable results in snowpack tests. I suspect it will remain sensitive to new inputs in the form of new snow and wind for the foreseeable future.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
Fresh touchy wind slabs could form on open N and E facing slopes. New snow may also hide older hard and stubborn wind slabs from the previous outflow winds - these can be found on S and W facing slopes.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Sheltered slopes at lower elevations might offer the best snow quality.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs
A crust buried in mid November remains sensitive to human triggering, especially in thin spots near rock outcroppings. Surface avalanches in motion may step down to this interface.
Caution around convexities, ridge crests, rock outcroppings and anywhere else with a thin or variable snowpack.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 6

Valid until: Jan 2nd, 2015 2:00PM