Avalanche Forecast

High -

Once again forecasts are conflicting. The forecast that nailed it today says we're due for another 10cm overnight with flurries tapering by morning. Then another pulse will arrive to bring another 10cm by late day tomorrow. The wind pattern suggest strong winds above 2800m, and light winds at treeline elevations. Temps will climb tomorrow to the -10 range.

Loose dry avalanches were very easy to trigger today. They were up to sz1, but the size of the terrain is the deciding factor for snow volume. They could be much bigger in large terrain. Alpine observations were limited. Given the amount of snow, its almost certain there was a natural cycle ongoing.

At the moment, there is 40 of new snow from the past couple of days. So far this storm has brought 20cm of cold, low density snow at treeline elevations. Alpine elevations had some wind affect today, but treeline was surprisingly calm. A profile at the top of Tryst Chutes had the Dec 15th down 115cm, Jan 6th down105cm & the Jan 18th down 90cm. The test results were mixed. We had one test fail with sudden results from a moderate load (CTM12 SP). This was notable and concerning as if failed on the dec 15th layer. The other test had slightly better results, but still concerning. In this test, it failed with a heavier load (ECTP22 on the Jan 6th). The take home point: there is still huge uncertainty within the snowpack. A failure on any of those layers will be a big avalanche.