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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 14th, 2018–Jan 15th, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

http://www.pc.gc.ca/apps/scond/Cond_E.asp?oID=30469&oPark=100205Human triggered avalanches are likely. Expect avalanche activity to increase throughout the day as the warm temps and sun begin to affect the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

The valley cloud is expected to linger until midday, once above it you will be treated to mainly sunny skies. There will be a slight temperature inversion with the alpine reaching a high of +2 with 20 km/hr south east winds. This is the first day of a two day warming period. No snow in the forecast until Tuesday evening once temps drop.

Snowpack Summary

70cm of snow over the past week has settled into a slab over several weak layers. Jan 4th surface hoar is down ~60cm and the Dec 15 surface hoar persistent weak layer is down around 100cm. The recent snow load has made these layers reactive with sudden planar results showing high propagation potential.

Avalanche Summary

Several sz 1.5 - 2.5 avalanches and one sz 3.0 avalanche from steep, aggressive terrain along the highway corridor yesterday.Consistent reports of whumphing and shooting cracks since the storm early last week.Hard Sudden Planar (SP) results down ~60cm on the Jan 4 surface hoar (5mm) during stability tests yesterday.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

A reactive slab continues to settle, warming temps in the next couple days will make it more touchy. The slab is poorly bonded in areas where the Jan 4 surface hoar is well preserved. If triggered avalanches could step down to the Dec 15th PWL.
Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

This interface has become reactive with the recent new loading and is most prevalent around treeline or sheltered areas the alpine. These avalanches are especially dangerous in terrain traps where debris can pile up.
Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3