Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Snoqualmie Pass.
The avalanche danger should decrease Sunday as a wet snowpack refreezes. Fresh wind slab will mostly likely be found near and above treeline. Shallow loose wet slides are likely on steeper solar aspects in the afternoon.
Detailed Forecast
Decreasing snow showers along with rapid cooling Saturday night through Sunday morning should transition to mostly sunny skies by Sunday afternoon. Freezing levels will be on the cool side Sunday but late March sunshine will help bump up temperatures to near or above freezing at lower and mid-elevations. Winds are forecast to be fairly light on Sunday.
The avalanche danger should decrease Sunday as a wet snowpack refreezes.
Fresh wind slab has likely built on NW to SE aspects, mainly near and above treeline. Watch for firmer wind transported snow on other aspects, especially in areas of complex terrain. All aspects will be listed until more information is received on recent general loading patterns.Â
New snow accumulated with a cooling trend and diminishing winds, but small storm slabs may be possible in specific areas on Sunday.Â
Generally small loose wet avalanches are likely at lower elevations and on solar slopes. Watch for surface wet snow deeper than a few inches, rollerballs or increasing small natural releases.
It is always a good plan to travel well back from ridges, suspected of cornice formation, or on steep slopes below cornices.
Snowpack Discussion
Weather and SnowpackÂ
The first week or so of March was very cool and snowy. NWAC stations along the west slopes of the Cascades piled up about 3 to 8 ft of snow with the most at Mt Baker.
The 2nd week of March was equally active with non-stop Pacific frontal systems pummeling the PNW. Unfortunately these systems delivered far more rain than snow. At least two regional avalanche cycles occurred during the stretch. Significant snowpack consolidation occurred over this period due to rainfall and warmer temperatures.Â
After a short respite from the active weather pattern on Thursday, another strong low pressure system brought several inches of rain to the west slopes of the Cascades outside the Cascade Passes Friday night. 2.5 to 4 inches of water has been seen at Paradise, Crystal and Mt. Baker respectively over the last 24 hours ending at 5 PM PDT Saturday, mainly in the form of rain. The Cascade Passes picked up 6-8 inches of new snow Friday night before changing to rain later Saturday morning. Rapid cooling with the frontal passage produced about 8 inches of snow to accumulate at Mt. Baker with lesser amounts seen elsewhere along the west slopes of the Cascades.Â
Recent Observations
North
NWAC observer Lee Lazarra was in the Mt Baker backcountry prior to the storm on Friday and reported a well settled snowpack with a stout crust. The recent snow ranged from 4 to 8 inches of recent dry snow depending upon wind distribution. There were some shallow wind slabs noted on lee slopes in higher terrain.Â
Early Saturday morning, Mt. Baker pro-patrol reported widespread natural loose wet activity that had occurred Friday night off of Table Mt, Mt. Herman and Shuskan Arm. Very heavy rain overnight had increased the potential for wet slab/glide avalanches in the Mt. Baker area.Â
Central
Alpental pro-patrol reported easy and widespread ski triggered 6-8" storm slabs on the upper half of Alpental Saturday morning with rain reaching the summit. Stevens Pass pro-patrol had similar results Saturday morning with widespread sensitive loose wet slides, up to size 2, natural and human triggered during the warming and switch to rain. Â
South
Prior to the storm, NWAC pro-observer Jeremy Allyn was out in Bullion Basin in the Crystal area Friday and found little to no avalanche problems due to the re-freeze and stout crust. Very thin wind slabs were possible on steep lee or cross-loaded features above treeline.
Crystal patrol reported a natural cycle Friday night, presumably loose wet, but little to no results during avalanche control work Saturday morning.Â
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Storm Slabs
Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.
Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1