Watch for deteriorating stability throughout the day as temperatures warm up. These decreases in stability will be most apparent on thin rocky solar aspects so keep an eye on overhead terrain that may already be in the sun.
Confidence
Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain
Weather Forecast
High pressure ridge still dominating forecast region. Warm temps will continue, light winds are forecast with no new snow for the next few days.
Avalanche Summary
Numerous loose wet avalanches up to size 1.5 from steep solar aspects. Extensive snowballing in steeper terrain. Also, a few older slabs on E aspects at 3000m up to size 2 on Whistling Rock Ridge in steep (45deg) unsupported terrain. Likely caused by cornice collapses in the past 72hrs.
Snowpack Summary
Snowpack continues to settle with warm temps. Melt freeze crust on solar aspects up to 2900m that was breaking down and becoming moist by 11am. Widespreasd surface hoar growth up to 6mm on all aspects except steep solar. Suspect this will become a concern once snow arrives. HS on the French Glacier and on the Robertson Glacier was highly variable from 200cm to 40cm to bare ice in some places.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.