With little to no freeze expected overnight and freezing levels near 3600m on Wednesday, avalanche danger will climb rapidly and could hit HIGH on steep solar aspects. Avalanche control on EEOR and Mt. Buller planned for Wednesday at 11:00am
Weather Forecast
Freezing levels will stay elevated through the night and spike again on Wednesday to at least 3400m. It is quite possible that there will not be a significant overnight freeze. Winds are expected to be light from the south and temperatures at 3000m will reach +5.
Avalanche Summary
Widespread solar triggered sluffing occurred through the day up to size 2.5, beginning on SE aspects and progressing to S and W aspects. Several large slab avalanches occurred in the alpine on southerly slopes. These slides were in the range of size 2.5 and 3.0, had fracture depths in excess of one meter and wide propagations.
Snowpack Summary
Crusts exist on all aspects at all elevations, except for true north aspects which have crusts below 2400m, and dry snow above. The snowpack is settling rapidly with the very warm temperatures. The deeply buried weak layers of surface hoar and basal facets are responsible for numerous large, destructive avalanches over the past few days. Cornices are large.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.