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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 28th, 2012–Dec 29th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Wind values were below expected velocities over most of the forecast area on Friday but they are having an incremental effect on conditions in the alpine as we slowly see some wind sculpting taking place.  Thin windslabs are steadily developing.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

No new snow in the forecast for the next 72+ hours.  Valley bottom temperatures will gradually climb on Saturday into the -4 to -8 range but  upper elevation temps will cool to -12- to -16 with winds that are forecast to be out of the west to northwest for the weekend. 

Avalanche Summary

A few loose dry avalanches up to size 1.

Snowpack Summary

Very little change in the snowpack over the past few days.  The upper snowpack continues to settle and strengthen .  Windslabs building along ridge crests with increased west to north west winds above 2500m.  Below treeline in in sheltered areas at treeline, surface hoar is growing - size range 4-10mm.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.