Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

A series of Pacific low pressure systems will bring snow to the forecast area for the next 5 days. Forecast models vary on amounts and timing.  Some parts of the area may see large amounts of precipitation.Thursday night: Freezing level at valley bottom;    Another wave of moisture brings light precipitation then a minor clearing.  Winds from the south west, moderate to strong at ridge top.Friday: Freezing level: 1000m;      Yet another wave will bring more snow to the region. Expect 10 to 15 cm of precipitation with continuing moderate to strong winds at ridge top.Saturday:  Freezing level 600m;    A bit of a break in the weather on Saturday.  Flurries with a trace of precipitation, light  to moderate south winds at ridge top.Sunday:  Freezing levels near or at valley bottom.  Light to locally moderate precipitation.  Winds from the southwest gusting moderate to strong at ridge top.

Reports of natural avalanches up to size 2.5  running in the new snow on top of the old weak surfaces. Wind affected areas above tree line may produce larger avalanches.

Up to 70 cm of storm snow is now sitting on a variety of old surfaces that include multiple layers of surface hoar, facetted snow from the past few weeks of cold clear weather, with some old sun crust on steep south facing slopes. Moderate temperatures in the forecast should help with bonding, but redistribution by strong ridge top winds will create wind slabs on lee slopes. These wind slabs will be a prime cause for concern for the near future. In some parts of the forecast area there exists areas of shallow snowpack that should be regarded as potential locations to trigger large destructive avalanches.