We have seen avalanches failing on the deeper persistent weak layers daily. Although these are generally isolated to thin snowpack areas, the snowpack right now deserves some respect.
Summary
Weather Forecast
Cool temps, light winds and convective flurries continue on Wednesday and then a big system is forecasted starting Wednesday overnight and Thursday. Models are showing 20 - 30 cms with moderate to strong SW winds and freezing levels rising to ~ 1900m. The danger ratings will rise rapidly if it materializes.
Snowpack Summary
10-20 cm of new snow over the last couple days, becoming moist below 1700m. Buried sun crusts on solar aspects. Recent West winds have formed soft slabs in lee areas of the alpine. A firm upper snow pack sits over a generally weak mid-pack of facets and depth hoar. In shallow areas snowpack tests results are typically collapses near the ground.
Avalanche Summary
Two size 2 - 2.5 natural avalanches overnight Monday in the Sunshine area. These were on N aspects in the alpine and were triggered by small loads (10-15cms of new snow with light winds). Additionally, a couple recent close calls: Monday a skier accidental size 2.5 on the
Collie Glacier and on Sunday a
skier accidental size 2.5 near Bow Summit.
Confidence
Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday